The start of the National Football League (NFL) season has been surprising and unpredictable for many fans, whether in fantasy football or in the actual standings. With multiple big upsets and a myriad of injuries of star players, action and unpredictability have characterized the first few weeks.
So far, 49ers fans have seen inconsistent performances, leading to a 3-3 record after six weeks. After winning their first game at home vs. the New York Jets by a wide margin, the 49ers lost three heartbreaking games: first to the Minnesota Vikings and then Los Angeles Rams, both on the road, and on Oct. 6 to the Arizona Cardinals at home 24-23. They beat the Patriots 30-13 at home on Sept. 29. This past Thursday, they also rebounded for a season-saving 36-24 road victory over Seattle.
The 49ers have missed star running back Christian McCaffrey, and stalwarts like wide receiver Deebo Samuel and tight end George Kittle have also missed time. So far, this team has struggled with scoring in the Red Zone and leads late in the game. But let’s turn to the fantasy side of the sport.
Breakout Performances: players who are over-performing their projections
QB: Quarterback
RB:Running Back
WR: Wide Receiver
TE: Tight End
- Sam Darnold: QB (Minnesota Vikings)
- Jayden Daniels: QB (Washington Commanders)
- James Cook: RB (Buffalo Bills)
- Jordan Mason: RB (San Francisco 49ers)
- Jayden Reed: WR (Green Bay Packers)
- Malik Nabers: WR (New York Giants)
- Nico Collins: WR (Houston Texans)
- Marvin Harrison Jr: WR (Arizona Cardinals)
- Brock Bowers: TE (Las Vegas Raiders)
Busts — players who are underperforming their projections
- Patrick Mahomes: QB
- Dak Prescott: QB
- Josh Jacobs: RB
- Jerome Ford: RB
- Zamir White: RB
- Jaylen Waddle: WR
- Brandon Aiyuk: WR
- Jerry Jeudy: WR
- Tight Ends
Tight ends have been a fantasy nightmare this year with all top 10 options underperforming terribly, averaging career lows
Key Injuries:
Week 1: 9/14:
The 49ers’ Christian McCafferey placed on IR (~4 weeks)
- The 49ers offense is now more reliant on quarterback Brock Purdy and the passing game, with newer weapons such as Jauan Jennings emerging.
- Backup running back Jordan Mason is emerging as a viable mid-RB1 option in fantasy leagues: he is a must pick up if available.
Week 2: 9/20:
Isiah Pacheco suffered a fractured tibia in the Chiefs’ 26-25 victory against the Bengals (~ 6-8 weeks)
- Pacheco is the only respectable running back on the Chiefs. Without him the Chiefs will have to rely completely on their pass game.
- The Chiefs have held a steady 18-2 record when Pacheco has gotten at least 15 carries.
It remains to be seen who will step up and take on Pacheco’s role on the offense.
Week 2: 9/15:
The Rams’ Cooper Kupp suffered an ankle injury and walked off the field in a walking boot (~ 3-4 weeks):
- Already without breakout star receiver Puka Nacua, who is out with a serious knee injury, Kupp was the last viable passing option for the Rams.
- Without a star running game and their top two receivers the Rams offense will be searching for answers. Be on the lookout for breakout stars from their team.
Week 2: 9/12:
The Dolphin’s Tua Tagovailoa suffers his fourth concussion in the Dolphins 10-31 loss:
- Tagovailoa, who suffered a serious concussion in 2022, is meeting with neurologists to decide whether or not to continue his NFL career.
- While many believe Tua should retire, at the moment he has no plans to do so.
- If forced to retire due to medical reasons, Tua would still be owed $124 million remaining on his contract.
Week 2: 9/13:
The Chiefs’ wide receiver Hollywood Brown will undergo season-ending surgery on his shoulder
- Brown’s absence for the remainder of the season will largely have little to no impact on fantasy owners as he was yet to join the offense during a game.
Week 3: 9/22:
Devonta Smith suffers a concussion
- The Philadelphia Eagles’ A.J. Brown suffered a hamstring injury (~2-3 weeks).
- Brown, the Eagles’ leading receiver says that the injury isn’t serious but he will miss some time.
- Smith’s concussion further exacerbates the Eagles’ receiving core dilemma.
- Look for star running back Saquan Barkley to generate even more opportunities in the offense.
Week 4: 9/29
The Chiefs’ Rashee Rice suffered a feared torn ACL.
- Rice suffered the injury while covering an interception return by the Los Angeles Chargers.
- The Chiefs’ injury-riddled offense has taken another big hit. The team was already without Isaiah Pacheco and Marquise Brown and will now have to go the rest of the season without Rice.
- Look for Travis Kelce and Xavier Worthy to generate more yards in the passing game, while Kareem Hunt and CLyde Edward-Helaire should hold down their rushing attack.
Week 5: 10/9
Nico Collins placed on injured reserve.
- The Houston Texans placed the NFL’s leader in receiving yards, wideout Nico Collins, on injured reserve
- The loss of Collins from the Texans’ pass game will elicit more opportunities for veteran receiver Stefon Diggs and last year’s breakout rookie, Tank Dell
- Additionally, the Texans backfield should be set to have an increase in touches
Week 5: 10/9
Derek Carr ruled out indefinitely
- Carr, the 10th year veteran, started the season off strong with a campaign that was trending towards playoff contention
- Carr suffered an oblique injury which will be a detrimental blow to the team
- Avoid all Saints wide receivers as the backup, a rookie drafted as a 5th round pick, does not hold too much promise for fantasy managers
How new NFL trends are affecting fantasy football
The greatest trend affecting fantasy football this year is the drop in offensive yards per game. There are several theories for this, with the most prominent being how the teams’ set up their defense, worsening offensive lines around QBs and an increase in defensive line talent, which allows teams to drop more players into pass coverage. Despite this, it is still early into the season, and it’s possible that many QBs are having a slow starts and will adjust course in the coming weeks.
In the meantime, despite their decrease in pay, running backs have been productive in fantasy football. It is uncertain if the running backs will keep their pace, but don’t underestimate their potential.
The inconsistency in the passing game has obviously affected the receivers they throw to. For both wide receivers and tight ends, there have been wild swings in fantasy points scored. Some players score 2 points in one week and 30 in the next. There is an element of randomness in choosing your receivers, so look for consistent players.
Conclusion
All in all, you probably have suffered the wrath of uncertainty in fantasy football. Just about every team has had a set of players score the most points on the team one week, then drop off the next two. Our advice would be to look for the most consistent players and look for your players’ best matchups each week instead of looking at point totals. Good luck on your season!
